Wednesday, May 31, 2006

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Casey vs Lieberman

TPMCafe
    Lieberman represents the left flank of the moderates who are ready to bolt from George Bush. More important to progressive aspirations are the moderate 6 of the North east – Specter, Collins, Snowe, Chaffee, DeWine and Voinavich. Voinavich and Specter survived challenges in 2004 – protected by the wave of stasis in the country – DeWine and Chaffee face challenges this year, along with the probable defeat of Santorum by Conservative Democrat Bob Casey.

    And it is in Casey that we see the difference between the two strategies and their effects. Casey, a dynasty politician had no effective opposition in the primary, even though he is against key issues that the base supports – possible challengers were cleared out. It is not that the DSCC needed to nominate a conservative to win the race in Pennsylvania – it is that it is cheaper to do so, and that is seen by the swing strategy moderates as freeing up resources for other races. In the swing moderate strategy, getting two Senators who will often vote against the party, is much better than getting one that will always vote with the party. Conservative Democrats, breed other conservative Democrats.

    Lieberman, who is to the left of Casey, has a very serious challenge in Ned Lamont – it isn't that bloggers and internetizens were not willing to back a challenge to Casey in Pennsylvania, it is that local passions in Pennsylvania were not aroused by stopping Casey, where as the anger at Lieberman's neglecting of the party stalwarts in Connecticut was the powder on which ideological sparks fell.

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