My Thoughts on the Latest Poll
1. Polls at this stage don't mean a whole heck of a lot - atleast not to the average person out there. Most people only think about politics 7 minutes a week. How much time do you think non-political people are spending thinking about this Senate race? These polls are more important for the political junkies like you and me.
2. I thought an interesting part about the poll was that Santorum did so well with young people. Everyone talks about how young people are more liberal, but if that's the case, then why doesn't Casey have a lead here? My own thoughts about this is that young people like people who are willing to take a risk or are outspoken - Santorum falls into this category at times. Also, I believe that our generation is more conservative than our parents. Not that that takes much. Even the younger Democrats are more moderate than their parents. I'd say it is more a trend towards individualism - which of course then makes people less reliant on government and less likely to support those candidates who push for bigger government.
3. The other surprising fact from the poll is Philadelphia's numbers - According to the poll, Santorum does better in Philly than Allegheny, the region he is from. If Santorum takes somewhere between 1/3 and 40% of the vote in Philly, he'll win for sure. He doesn't have much ground to make up there in order for that to happen.
4. Overall, I'd say this early out, this poll isn't horrible. Casey does well because he hasn't said a thing - he's been running the Seinfeld campaign - a campaign about nothing. As soon as Casey does start talking about policies, his numbers will drop, and Santorum's will rise. It's an easy prediction to make, but accurate as well. Alot of people know that Santorum is conservative and where he stands on many issues, but Casey is an open book. Right now he has two things going for him:
a. He is benefiting from the Colin Powell syndrome - No one knows where Colin stands on the issues, so he always polls well. If he were to start talking, his numbers would tank.
b. Casey has his father's name. Not a new accusation, but still true. There are people out there who think they are voting for Bob Casey, Sr. That's one reason why Casey's numbers go up with older populations. This is especially true in PA where many people consider family history and where someone is from a major part of their decision making process in whom they will vote for.
2. I thought an interesting part about the poll was that Santorum did so well with young people. Everyone talks about how young people are more liberal, but if that's the case, then why doesn't Casey have a lead here? My own thoughts about this is that young people like people who are willing to take a risk or are outspoken - Santorum falls into this category at times. Also, I believe that our generation is more conservative than our parents. Not that that takes much. Even the younger Democrats are more moderate than their parents. I'd say it is more a trend towards individualism - which of course then makes people less reliant on government and less likely to support those candidates who push for bigger government.
3. The other surprising fact from the poll is Philadelphia's numbers - According to the poll, Santorum does better in Philly than Allegheny, the region he is from. If Santorum takes somewhere between 1/3 and 40% of the vote in Philly, he'll win for sure. He doesn't have much ground to make up there in order for that to happen.
4. Overall, I'd say this early out, this poll isn't horrible. Casey does well because he hasn't said a thing - he's been running the Seinfeld campaign - a campaign about nothing. As soon as Casey does start talking about policies, his numbers will drop, and Santorum's will rise. It's an easy prediction to make, but accurate as well. Alot of people know that Santorum is conservative and where he stands on many issues, but Casey is an open book. Right now he has two things going for him:
a. He is benefiting from the Colin Powell syndrome - No one knows where Colin stands on the issues, so he always polls well. If he were to start talking, his numbers would tank.
b. Casey has his father's name. Not a new accusation, but still true. There are people out there who think they are voting for Bob Casey, Sr. That's one reason why Casey's numbers go up with older populations. This is especially true in PA where many people consider family history and where someone is from a major part of their decision making process in whom they will vote for.
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